March 18, 2019 at 23:33 #2032
Tensions between a resurgent Russia and the West have led to a multitude of politicians and media outlets describing this era as the New Cold War, and this comparison certainly has merit: both NATO and Moscow are backing different factions in conflicts that could be dubbed proxy wars, and the installation of American missile defence systems in Eastern Europe has caused outrage in the Kremlin.
Of course, the casualty numbers of recent fighting between Western-backed factions in Ukraine, Syria and Georgia (and those of their Russian-supported enemies) are eclipsed by those from Vietnam in the 1960s or Afghanistan two decades later, and despite Moscow’s fury over US Patriot missile batteries in Poland, matters have not escalated to the heights of the Cuban Missile Crisis and Mutually Assured Destruction.
Yet these comparisons are, despite their initial appearances, not all that thin, nor is the overall definition of early 21st century geopolitics as Cold War Lite: of course, there is no longer any overt ideological struggle between Washington and Moscow, and with the rise of international terrorism and Chinese economic power, American and Western priorities have shifted away from the Kremlin.
Perhaps the politicians and diplomats of the 1990s believed that Russia could be written off as an enemy of yesteryear, just as their predecessors had done with Germany after the Second World War; terrorism, therefore, became the threat for the 1990s, instead of Communism, in something of the same manner as Communism itself had replaced fascism for the Cold War period. This idea that the West’s enemies manifest themselves in an orderly linear fashion is, at a conservative estimate, unrealistic, but it appears to have been taken seriously given the lack of effort in curbing Russian aggression since the 2000s. Furthermore, it is demonstrably the case that Russia resurgent is also Russia revenant.
The invasions of aspiring NATO members and the assassination of Russian opponents to the Putin regime in Western countries would suggest that Moscow is content to re-ignite the tensions of the past by using past methods, but as part of this latest incarnation of the struggle of White House vs Kremlin, Russia has taken the conflict into an entirely new theatre.
The idea that Russia could exert influence on Western political processes was the stuff of Cold War nightmares, but this has now come to pass. The notion that Lee Harvey Oswald (a would-be Soviet citizen who defected before eventually returning home) was working for the KGB when he assassinated President Kennedy remains firmly in the realm of conspiracy theories, but the US Department of Homeland Security has admitted that Russian hackers were able to break into the registration rolls of 21 states during the 2016 presidential election. Further alarm has been raised over possible Russian attempts to affect the results of the UK’s 2016 referendum to leave the European Union and the French elections of 2017.
It is clear that the West has been caught flat-footed and unprepared to face the latest Russian menace, whose hackers seem as inexorable as the endless battalions of Soviet tanks of an earlier generation. Western security agencies have succeeded in preventing far more terrorist attacks than have been carried out, and did score a success against Moscow by breaking the ‘Illegals Ring’ of spies 2014, in which Russian sleeper agents were exposed and apprehended. Yet overall the West has been revealed to be woefully inadequate to tackle the true Russian spies of Cold War 2.0; the Illegals Ring affair was mocked as being a far cry from prior Soviet ambition (with spies having flimsy false identities, an often weak grasp of English, and apparently petty objectives compared to their Cold War predecessors) but the last laugh rested with the Kremlin, as its hackers have been able to attack Western political processes with impunity, and the West has learned that real Russian espionage can be conducted from the comfort and safety of an office.
With a buckling Macron presidency in France, Britain floundering in political turmoil, the sunset of the Merkel years in Germany, and the looming American presidential election of 2020, the West has little time to bolster its defences. The US mid-term elections of 2018 did not suffer the scale of attacks of the presidential race two years prior, but the 2020 contest will be unlikely to be left untouched. This issue is relevant on a budgetary as well as a political level, since significantly more money will be required by campaign teams to invest in cyber security. On the campaign trail, cyber security experts could become even more important than press advisers and chiefs of staff; the field of cyber defence has already become a talking point for Democrats seeking a nomination, in comparison with the previous election, in which it was only referred to in the context of terrorists making use of commercially-available encrypted messaging services.
Of course, the West has not been idle. The US Department of Homeland Security has taken steps to prevent a repeat of 2016 happening in 2020, blacklisting potentially hostile IP addresses, coordinating security measures with representatives of 45 states, and offered training to local election workers. In addition, Microsoft and Facebook have made strides of their own, with the former blocking fake accounts (which were used as part of Russian fake news efforts in 2016) and the latter successfully halting cyber assaults on three candidates for Congress.
Yet one might wonder if these disjointed efforts will prove sufficient to withstand any future hacking attempts; it will require significant coordination between government bodies and all the individual representatives of the private sector to be successful against an opponent whose own efforts are, above all, very precisely coordinated. If there are too many moving parts in America’s web of defence then Russian hackers could conceivably break through the lines.
Given the long history of tensions between Moscow and the West, electoral interference is a comparatively recent tactic, but it may not be the only weapon in Russia’s cyber arsenal for the future. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, has said “we do not want a new Cold War and a new arms race with Russia”, but the alliance’s wants are irrelevant; a new Cold War is upon it already. Yet while modern Russian invasions, territorial incursions and treaty violations may have twentieth-century counterparts and precedents, shadow cyber-warfare is an entirely new theatre of conflict that the West must adapt to. Coordinated defence efforts must be able to move with an ever-evolving sector; the first test is a little over a year away.
March 19, 2019 at 14:59 #2073
- This topic was modified 8 months ago by Timothy Ogden.
An interesting article, which sheds light on the fact that there is no peace in Cyber space. States and non state actors, are at war with each other. The era of the first Cold War of the USSR v the West is far gone, and with it the monopoly of nation states on the use of force.
Russia has understood the need for investing heavily in developing its cyber defense capabilities, while the West is clearly lagging behind. What is interesting though, is that Russia’s allies and affiliates have prioritized cyber security too; following Russia’s example. Indeed Hezbollah’s performance during the 2006 conflict with Israel was alarmingly impressive. Here we saw a non state entity excelling at cyber warfare, to the surprise of a massively more technologically advanced Israel.
While the US is still keen on an ambitious star wars program, Russia is planning to disconnect from the internet as early as next month, to test its cyber defenses.March 19, 2019 at 17:42 #2107
Very informative article.
About American election in 2016 , Russia have had a lot of bots as well which where spreading false information on social networks by commenting and sharing information which was confusing and misleading people. 2016 was very hard but educative for western cyber world and i think this should have raised awareness of governments . 2020 is coming closer and US government should take more defense measures until next year to provide fair elections .March 19, 2019 at 18:25 #2118
Considering the close relationship between the U.S. and the U.K, especially when it comes to international relations and the sharing of intelligence, American fears regarding Russia’s meddled in their 2016 elections has likely tainted Britain’s view of Russia as well. It wasn’t just Americans who closely followed that electoral process—people around the world were biting their nails over the selection of the next U.S. President.March 20, 2019 at 10:13 #2138
interesting topic that gave me an overview about the new era of war.
March 21, 2019 at 00:07 #2215
- This reply was modified 8 months ago by ta89.
Very interesting article. There is actually no privacy and security on the internet. The 2016 American presidential election was seriously influenced by the internet.March 28, 2019 at 21:45 #2469
It’s been featured on our medium : https://medium.com/@cybersecurecentral/from-our-forums-russian-cyber-attacks-and-the-new-cold-war-5cc20ed7923cMarch 29, 2019 at 16:34 #2474
A very informative piece
It’s clear that cyber warfare is at peak between different global powers and they are trying hard to protect their regional and strategic interests. In today’s world, a direct war between them is impossible because of the weapon systems they have. So, the only option, perhaps, they left with is cyber warfare and Russia seems to be leading the way. Recent electoral interference proves the capability of Russian hackers and how seriously Russian government has invested in this area. Venezuelan Crisis is another example where Washington and Moscow are in war of words.
Western world, on the other hand, presently seems helpless and lacks the capability to stop the data breaches. They, probably, need to invest heavily to build the army of “Cyber Soldiers”.October 30, 2019 at 17:33 #5766
A thorough article. The fact is, Russian hackers and cyber professionals far outweigh those of the U.S., in both talent and numbers. The proof as they say, is in the pudding, as was clearly displayed in the 2016 electoral run. As the world moves forward and becomes more and more technologically inclined, it is clear as day that the real war happens online, at a desk and chair, and behind a screen. Believing otherwise is delusion.October 31, 2019 at 17:09 #5771
The theatrics and silliness that the Americans choose to employ in their military and political spheres have left them vulnerable to those who work in silence and work effectively. As in, Russian Intelligence is not so glamorised for a reason, that reason being that they commit their focus, time and resources on developing their capacities, and despite being out-funded by the U.S., have still manage to overtake them in cyber affairs. The U.S. should get serious about improving upon this particular sector, otherwise, they will find themselves in a similar affair in 2020, and it won’t look pretty.November 1, 2019 at 15:38 #5776
What is confusing about the Russians is that at times, they seem to be colluding with the Americans and working with them, with Putin clearly advocating Trump’s presidency, and perhaps even playing part in him getting it, as some have gone as far as speculating a possible alliance between the two. Whereas here you see that they are also still trying to cause damage to the Americans and acquire sensitive information. One can’t really know exactly what is up with the Russians, but what is certain is that they cyber intelligence now far exceeds that of the Americans, leaving the latter having to play catch up.November 18, 2019 at 17:28 #6044
I don’t think the tensions between Russia and the U.S. will ever dissipate for good. Here you have two super powers believing themselves to be the greatest countries in the world we live in today, and both vying to solidify their placement at the very top. US has managed to outdo Russia in the majority arenas, and hence enjoys the spotlight today, yet one can’t sleep on the Russians and believe them incapable, as they have proven time and again to be a force to be reckoned. Now, with the introduction of cyber warfare, and the Russians’ clear capacity for it, all bets are off.
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